Economics, 1927-2025
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://theses-dissertations.princeton.edu/handle/88435/dsp013n203z151
Browse
Browsing Economics, 1927-2025 by Issue Date
- Results Per Page
- Sort Options
The Impact of Commuter Rail Construction on Metropolitan Denver Commuting Patterns
(2025) Silberman, Sebastian; Buchholz, Nicholas WyethI study the impact that the Denver metropolitan area’s Regional Transportation District (RTD) commuter rail, opened from 2016 to 2020, had on commuting patterns in the region. Specifically, I estimate a dynamic difference-in-differences model centered around the openings of the A, G, and N rail lines, using areas of the region with older light rail transit lines as a control group. Using American Community 5-year panel data from 2011 to 2023 for commuting times and commuting mode shares by census tract and year, I found null effects on these outcomes for the G and N lines and multiple notable results for the A line, which is considered the RTD’s “flagship line.” My work finds that the A line saw mixed success in some of the metrics I evaluated. The A Line was associated with a temporary relief in car congestion in the line’s vicinity; I estimate that it was responsible for an increase in the share of car commuters commuting less than 30 minutes to work of up to 6.8 percentage points following the line’s opening, an effect which later subsided. I also estimate that the opening of the line was actually responsible for a decrease in the public transit mode share among commuters, leading to a decrease in bus commuter mode share of 2.5 percentage points yet an increase in train commuter mode share of 1.4 percentage points, an impact which I attribute to cuts in bus service following the new rail line. This result appears to show potential shortcomings of rail in replacing bus service. In conclusion, I argue that ridership can be increased through transit-oriented development (TOD) along commuter rail lines.
SELECTIVE IMMIGRATION IN CANADA: HOW SKILLED LABOR IMMIGRATION AFFECTS HOUSING PRICES
(2025-01-05) Hunger, Max; Rivera, Roman GabrielConventional Growth: The Economic Impact of Presidential Nominating Conventions on Host Cities
(2025-04-03) Jennings, Jack; Bleemer, ZacharyThis paper examines the relationship between cities hosting Presidential Nominating Conventions and economic growth, measured by city GDP, employment rate and tourism through an event study. Additionally, this paper looks at the impact of key convention-related infrastructure investments and the size of the host city to see if either of these factors affected the host city’s post-convention long-term GDP. Previous research on the subject was limited, and failed to find any meaningful correlation between hosting a convention and economic growth, while related research on short-term events and economic growth has resulted in a wide spectrum of results. Compared to their own pre-convention trends and relative to large host cities, the data revealed that small host cities showed significant increases in both short and long-run GDP. However, there is no significant general trend in GDP, employment or tourism for host cities, relative to both pre-convention trends and would-be host cities, and there is no indication that the key infrastructure investment led to long term growth, although it led to a small, non-statistically significant, short term boost.
What “Makes” a “Popular” Song?: Accounting for Creative Capital
(2025-04-04) Rios, Isabella; Lee, David S.This work examines the impact of “creative capital,” in the form of credited songwriters and producers, on a song’s “popularity,” as measured by chart performance. Executing twelve ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions upon an aggregated dataset composed of Billboard Hot 100 weekly chart rankings, song specific features accessed through Spotify’s Web API, and “creative capital counts” pulled with the assistance Microsoft 365 Copilot, I find that additional “creative capital” generates a statistically significant improvement in “popularity.” Moreover, I determine that the marginal benefit of such additions depends upon the interaction of songwriter and producer “creative capital groups” and increases with the overall number of credited creatives within each group. Additionally, the results of this study indicate a lack of statistical significance of song audio features in determining song “popularity.”
BUSINESS VALUATION: A COMPARABLE STUDY OF DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW AND COMPARABLE COMPANY ANALYSIS ACROSS INDUSTRIES
(2025-04-04) Astreinidis, Filippos; Urgun, CanThis thesis examines the practical aspects of two widely used widely used valuation methods, the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Comparable Company Analysis (CCA) models. It uses a comparative analysis to assess their potential as well as their limitations across three industries: technology, healthcare, and consumer goods. The paper finds that the DCF method is appropriate for valuing firms with stable cash flows. However, it is subject to excessive assumption bias, and slight miscalculations can impact the valuation results. It also proves that CCA is a strong instrument to value firms in high-growth and volatile sectors. The results stress the need for cautious financial modeling and provide analysts with practical guidance in choosing valuation tools across different market environments.
Forging Prices: A Comparative Analysis of Chinese and United States Monetary Policy on Metal Markets
(2025-04-06) Tang, David C.; Xiong, WeiI utilize an event study methodology to examine the effect of monetary policy shocks in the U.S. and China on base metals commodity prices from 1993 to 2022. I find that shocks to the Chinese 1-year policy rate, Chinese 5-year policy rate, Chinese reserve requirement, and U.S. Federal Funds Rate produce generally negative cumulative abnormal returns in copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel prices. On a unit-by-unit basis, shocks to the Chinese reserve requirement produce the greatest negative cumulative abnormal returns for all metals, followed by the U.S. Federal Funds Rate, Chinese 1-year policy rate, and Chinese 5-year policy rate. Increases to Chinese monetary policy instruments produce a stronger magnitude of cumulative abnormal returns compared to decreases, with the exception of aluminum and zinc with the Chinese reserve requirement ratio. With U.S. monetary policy instruments, decreases produce a stronger magnitude of cumulative abnormal returns compared to increases in monetary policy instruments. However, standardization of cumulative abnormal returns based on historical volatility of changes to monetary policy shows the U.S. Federal Funds Rate as the most impactful monetary policy instrument. Results should ultimately be treated with skepticism due to poor goodness of fit of the model, suggesting that additional factors may be influencing base metal price movements; further research into this subject could explore other macroeconomic variables and transmission mechanisms that could better capture base metal commodity price dynamics.
Homeownership and Student Loans: Analyzing Demographic Variation
(2025-04-08) Bhojwani, Samir; Bhatt, SwatiAs student loan debt in the United States increases, its influence on various decisions, particularly homeownership, has become a growing concern. While previous research has started to examine the link between homeownership and student loans in different contexts, little is known about how this relationship empirically varies across demographics. This thesis addresses two questions: (1) How does the relation between student loan debt and homeownership likelihood differ by race, marital status, and the combination of marriage and parenthood? (2) More broadly, how does having student loan debt or a high student loan balance connect to homeownership likelihood? Using the 2023 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED), focusing on American adults aged 22 to 65, I apply binary logistic regressions to answer these questions. I find a statistically significantly negative correlation between having student loan debt and homeownership likelihood. However, I do not find a correlation between a high student loan balance and homeownership likelihood, nor do I observe significant differences across racial, marital, or parental status groups. Although the research has limitations, this paper provides implications for future researchers, policymakers, and the many American adults handling student loan debt.
The AI Premium: Artificial Intelligence Influences on Venture Capital Deal Sizes
(2025-04-08) Kait, Elise; Corman, HopeThe Effect of Religion on Support for Government Spending in Eight Key Areas: Religion and Variation Across Ten Latin American Countries
(2025-04-08) Imperial, Carlisle D.; Corman, HopeThe Power of the Payor: Exploring the Effect of Mandated Infertility Treatment Coverage on Female Labor Outcomes
(2025-04-08) Feiner, Amelia R.; Reichman, NancyBetween 1980 and 2000, thirteen US states enacted policies mandating insurance coverage for infertility treatments, generating plausibly exogenous variation in access to reproductive technologies. Employing a series of differences-in-differences regressions that exploit variation in mandates across states and years, I estimate the causal effect of increased access to infertility treatments on female labor market outcomes. I extend this analysis with a triple-difference model, examining differential labor trends across age cohorts. The results reveal a consistent pattern of reduced labor force participation in the years following mandate implementation, relative to women in untreated states. Although wage income effects are less robust, there is a general upward trend in income, particularly in states with more comprehensive legislation. These findings suggest that expanded access to infertility treatments has meaningful consequences for women’s labor market behavior.
Charging Ahead, Left Behind? Balancing Local Labor Market Trade-Offs of Recent U.S. Power Plant Retirements and Renewable Energy Expansion
(2025-04-08) Brunnermeier, Anjali; Reichman, NancyThe Renewable Energy Transition has propelled two diverging trends in the United States energy industry: a major uptake in power generation from renewable sources and a series of closures of nonrenewable facilities. I study the counteracting labor market implications of both developments between 2019 and 2023, locating all operating utility-scale solar and wind generators and all 842 power plant and generator retirements. These retirements have been criticized by politicians and interest groups who believe that decarbonization policies are devastating fossil fuel dependent communities. I collect annual employment and earnings data for 3,000+ counties and 680+ commuting zones to evaluate the magnitudes of labor market reactions to plant retirements, measure the economic impacts of wind and solar, and identify disproportionate reactions to plant closures in regions without renewables. Distinct from prior literature, I concentrate on a more recent time period and extend existing methodologies to isolate adverse consequences based on a lack of renewable energy adoption. Using autoregressive two-way fixed effects modeling of same year and next year outcomes, I find that plant retirements had a nonsignificant negative impact on employment but were evidently damaging toward earnings, specifically personal income and total wages in commuting zones. I also identify significant positive economic impacts of solar capacity that do outweigh the average losses from retired plant capacity. However, I establish that regions with zero renewable capacity were more harshly affected by plant retirements, experiencing 3.5 to 4.6 times larger reductions in total wages. These findings highlight several economic benefits of renewable technologies but also recognize disparate trends in labor market quality after power plant closures in nonrenewable reliant economies.
Rethinking the Arc: An Econometric and Game-Theoretical Analysis of the NBA’s Three-Point Reliance and Proposed Rule Changes
(2025-04-08) Milligan, Justin T.; Shim, HenryOver the past decade, the National Basketball Association (NBA) has witnessed a historic rise in three-point shooting frequency, raising concern over the direction of the game. Fueled by a more comprehensive understanding of basketball analytics, this trend has led to the decline of the mid-range game and has produced more repetitive shot selections. Currently, over 42% of total shot attempts are from behind the three-point line, and the majority of the remainder are taken in the paint. My thesis investigates the degree to which three-point shooting is impacting the game today, and proposes two rule changes to mitigate this impact: the extension of the three-point line and the addition of a four-point line. To do this, I use a combination of econometric, statistical, and game-theoretical methods to motivate, establish, and analyze what these rule changes would look like over time. The results suggest that shifting the three-point line back to 26 feet and eliminating the corner three would return shot distributions to a 2011-2012 level, the season where ratings peaked since the turn of the century. Additionally, this paper analyzes the dynamics of a four-point line and its potential ramifications. After taking into account how player skill would develop over time, the results suggest placing a four-point line at 33 feet. While both of these lines would significantly decrease three-point shooting frequency, I argue that extending the three-point line to 26 feet most directly addresses the league's current issues. Overall, this thesis explores how economic strategies can depict the three-point reliance in the NBA, and analyzes the potential impact of rule changes.
Post-Pandemic Real Estate Bubbles: A Comparative Analysis of US Metropolitan Areas
(2025-04-08) Pico, John; Urgun, CanREACHING FOR TRADE LIBERALIZATION IN AFRICA: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE DETERMINANTS OF THE ADOPTION OF THE AFRICA CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (AFCFTA)
(2025-04-08) Singei, Tevin V.; Lashkari, DanialThis paper investigates the factors influencing the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) at the national level. It employs a comparative approach to assess how various economic, political, and infrastructural factors affect both the timeline for ratification and actual trade activity within the AfCFTA framework. Utilizing simple linear regressions and isolating the effects of these factors, this study finds that countries with higher human development take longer to ratify the agreement and are more likely to engage in trade under the AfCFTA. Landlocked countries tend to ratify faster but are less likely to be currently trading. Additionally, countries with more memberships in Africa’s regional economic communities tend to ratify faster and are more likely to be trading. Finally, while there is no evidence of governance and infrastructure impacting ratification time, countries with a higher ease of doing business and more infrastructure investments are more likely to trade under the agreement, with these two factors being most prominent in explaining the likelihood of trade.
Reforming the Reforms: Analyzing how Managerial Entrenchment Impacted Performance During the Implementation of Japanese Corporate Governance Reforms
(2025-04-09) Barrett, John; Liu, JinFollowing its meteoric economic rise after World War II, Japan was reaching the global economic prowess of the U.S. and Europe. But, over-optimistic speculation instigated an economic crash, plunging Japan into the “Lost Decade”. However, the ensuing economic stagnation persisted well into the 2020s. To combat the persistent economic issues, Shinzo Abe introduced the “Three Arrows” to revitalize the Japanese markets. The third "arrow" hoped to address the structural issues - cross-holdings, zombie firms, and short-termism - facing Japan via corporate governance reforms. The three key reforms promising to address these issues and facilitate long-term growth were the 2014 Stewardship Code (‘SWC’), the 2015 Corporate Governance Code (‘CGC’), and the 2019 Fair M&A Guidelines (‘FMG’). Previous literature has commented on how cross-holding entrenchment protects managers from external investors, hindering firm performance and critical value-creating decisions. Using the degree of cross-holding as the method of understanding how firms of varying entrenchment levels reacted to the reforms, I implemented a firm-level panel data event study to analyze the subsequent results of each policy on Cash-to-Assets, Debt-to-Assets, Return on Assets, and Gross Margin. My study finds that the Stewardship Code prompted a de-leveraging campaign and temporary cash utilization within low cross-holding firms, resulting in an improvement in Return on Assets. The Corporate Governance Code supported the trends prompted by the SWC and marginal improvement in Gross Margins. Finally, the Fair M&A Guidelines yielded insignificant results for the outcome variables. Based on these results, I suggest that Japanese policymakers should imitate the SWC for future revisions and reforms. The three suggestions are 1) incorporate some level of pressure or punitive measure 2) reduce cross-holding entrenchment, and 3) bolster shareholder participation. With these three recommendations, Japan may re-emerge in the global markets
THE SWISS NATIONAL BANK'S MONETARY POLICY IMPACT, INCLUDING PERSISTENTLY LOW INTEREST RATES, ON SWITZERLAND'S LONG-TERM RATES – A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS WITH THE NETHERLANDS
(2025-04-09) Bosancic, Matthew L.; Urgun, CanSwitzerland’s low interest rate policy, set by the SNB, contrasts sharply with the inflation targeting monetary policy by the Netherlands under the ECB. This paper investigates the impact of these countries’ short-term policy rates on long-term bond yields, aiming to identify the differences in their responses. To do this, we analyze structural breaks during key economic events including the Global Financial Crisis, the Eurozone Crisis, and the SNB’s adoption of negative interest rates. We also conduct an evaluation of the differences in monetary policy transmission using vector autoregressions (VARs), Chow tests and IRF’s. The findings aim to provide insights into the effectiveness of low-rate policies versus inflation targeting in shaping economic stability and the dynamics of long-term interest rates.
Our results indicate that the transmission of short-term policy rate changes to long-term bond yields differs significantly between Switzerland and the Netherlands. In Switzerland, the SNB has kept the policy rate low and the response of 10-year bond yields was shown to be weaker and less consistent with the policy rate, largely since negative interest rates were introduced. In the Netherlands under the ECB's inflation-targeting framework, transmission is stronger and more stable. Besides policy rates, macroeconomic factors play a crucial role: Swiss yields react strongly to external risk and exchange rate volatility, while Dutch yields react more sensitively to Eurozone monetary policy and inflation expectations. These results suggest that while long-term yields impact to policy rates, macroeconomic conditions are the primary drivers of long-term interest rate behavior.
The Price of Performance: A Principal Component-Based Analysis of Marginal Revenue Product in Major League Soccer
(2025-04-09) Bryant, Lily Rome; Grossman, Gene MichaelPlayer compensation in professional sports is assumed to reflect on-field value, yet this relationship is less clear in leagues where individual performance is difficult to isolate or where institutional constraints shape wage structures. In Major League Soccer (MLS), compensation is determined within a system that centralizes contract ownership and imposes strict salary regulations. This thesis investigates the relationship between player salaries in the MLS and the value players contribute on the field. Specifically, it estimates each player’s Marginal Revenue Product (MRP) – a measure of the additional revenue a player generates for their team – to evaluate whether compensation aligns with individual performance. Using detailed data on individual on-field performance, the analysis constructs performance indexes inspired by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to represent key dimensions of play. These indexes are used to trace the pathway from individual contributions to team performance, from team performance to competitive success, and from success to revenue. The estimated MRPs are then compared to actual salary figures to assess the alignment between contribution and compensation. The findings reveal a disconnect: while high-profile attackers are often paid in excess of their estimated MRP, a substantial majority of players – particularly those in midfield and defensive roles – are undercompensated. Approximately three quarters of players in the MLS earn at least 5% less than their MRP suggests, indicating that MLS salaries reflect more than just performance-based economic value. These results point to the influence of positional visibility, marketability, and structural wage-setting mechanisms on compensation in a League where performance is not the sole currency of value.
Inequality, Success, and Strategy in European Football: An Econometric Study
(2025-04-09) Roberts, Harrison M.; Rivera, Roman GabrielFootball is the most popular sport worldwide. Given the range of cultures and backgrounds that produce top-tier players, strategy and style of play in professional football vary greatly and evolve rapidly. In recent years, however, football strategy for top-division teams in Europe has begun to converge on a universal strategy that promotes keeping possession of the ball and connecting a lot of passes. This thesis explores this emerging universal strategy and its effectiveness across different leagues and for teams with different payrolls. Specifically, the thesis aims to determine if adopting a “ball-dominant” strategy, characterized by high possession of the ball and a high rate of passing, yields more on-field and financial success for European football clubs across the top 5 leagues: Germany, England, France, Italy, Spain. This analysis is done using data from the past 7 seasons. Specifically, OLS models and Instrument Variable models are used to determine the relationships between style of play, on-field success, and financial inequality. This thesis serves as evidence to support European football’s universal convergence of strategy; there is a significant positive relationship between adopting a “ball-dominant” strategy and increased on-field success as well as financial success.
Rolling the Dice: The Impact of the Repeal of PASPA on NFL Player Salaries
(2025-04-09) Stacy, Jude C.; Lee, David S.In 1992, the United States passed the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) essentially banning states from legalizing sports betting. However, in 2018, the Supreme Court repealed PASPA, opening the door for states to legalize as they wished. Following the repeal of PASPA, 38 states and Washington D.C. have all legalized sports betting, bringing unprecedented change in the NFL. NFL revenue has increased by billions of dollars in the years following and are expected to continue to increase. With this increased revenue with the NFL, is it possible that the players are feeling the impact of any of this in their contracts? I hypothesize that the increase in revenue will serve as an exogenous shift in the aggregate demand in the labor market of the NFL, leaving the players with higher salaries as a result of sports betting legislation. This thesis uses a difference-in-difference model to estimate the impacts of sports betting legislation on both NFL rookie and non-rookie total contract values, and total real guaranteed money included in those contracts, finding that while there is no average effect, the top 90th percentile of players are earning less as a result of sports betting, while the bottom 10th percentile of NFL earners are earning more. This stands for rookies and non-rookies. Additionally, sports betting allowed the highest paid and lowest paid player in the league each year to earn more in their total contract value and total guaranteed money included in the contract as well.
Predicting the Causal Effects of Formal Employees’ Healthcare Seeking Behaviors on Attitudes Towards Ethiopia’s Social Health Insurance Scheme
(2025-04-09) Yacob, Yoel; Ho, KateThis thesis poses the question: do the healthcare seeking behaviors of formal sector employees have an impact on their attitude and support of Ethiopia’s plan to create a social health insurance scheme? Specifically, would a formal sector employee who typically uses private healthcare or is unsatisfied with their healthcare treatment be more likely to oppose the creation of a social health insurance scheme? The attitudes towards social health insurance, probability of seeking private healthcare, and probability of being satisfied with the treatment are modeled using four separate probit functions that uncover these likelihoods given the formal sector worker’s socioeconomic, demographic, health status, employment, and regional characteristics. The main findings of this paper are that private healthcare utilization increases the probability that a formal sector employee would oppose the implementation of social health insurance in Ethiopia, whereas treatment satisfaction decreases this probability. Additionally, this paper finds that income has no effect on attitudes towards social health insurance. Subsequent research is required to confirm whether private healthcare utilization has no significant impact on an individual’s treatment satisfaction.