Economics, 1927-2025
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://theses-dissertations.princeton.edu/handle/88435/dsp013n203z151
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A Modern Exploration of Discrepancies in the “Democrat-Republican Gap”: Investigating Economic Indicators Catalyzing Political Party Preferences at the State Level
(2025-04-10) Ayres, Chloe E.; Bilir, Lisa KamranA Performance Assessment of Private Equity and Venture Capital in the Energy Transition
(2025-04-10) Dorff, Zachary E.; Peng, LinThe energy transition is one of the most pressing issues facing contemporary society, and financing the path to de-carbonization involves a great deal of private financing from institutional investors. While infrastructure funds often garner the most attention among these private closed-end investment vehicles, past research has documented their underper- formance relative to other alternative asset classes. This work, therefore, examines other private closed-end investment vehicles (private equity and venture capital) with exposure to energy transition assets and provides a comprehensive performance assessment of these funds relative to traditional energy private closed-end funds. Panel data from Prequin is utilized to assess various return metrics, return volatility, covariance of returns with mar- ket and energy/utilities indices, and cash flow distribution profile through various regres- sion models. Results show no overall performance differences in returns and volatility for renewable-exposed funds and mixed-mandate funds. Results do find, however, that North American and venture capital funds underperform significantly when no development incen- tives are in place. Furthermore, renewable-exposed funds exhibit lower market and energy index correlation and have shorter duration in North America and Europe, demonstrating attractive hedging and liquidity features of these funds relative to their traditional energy peers. This analysis also reflects on the role of development incentives in driving energy transition investment performance.
A Study of Opportunity Zones: Using Rent Trends to Assess Policy Effectiveness
(2025-04-10) Bath, Michael P.; Reichman, NancyThe 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed by President Trump, included a provision for the creation of Opportunity Zones. Opportunity Zones are an investment tool that bipartisan economists recommended to incentivize wealthy individuals and institutions to invest in low-income, distressed communities. All 50 states, Washington, D.C., and five U.S. territories were given the option to designate a limited number of Opportunity Zones, which are defined by census tracts, to promote investment in low-income regions within their geographic areas. This independent work aims to capture the policy's effectiveness by using the change in rent as the outcome variable, rather than sale prices or other economic metrics, within Opportunity Zones. This independent work aims to evaluate the policy's effectiveness by using the change in rent as the outcome variable, focusing on rent instead of sale prices or other economic metrics within Opportunity Zones. The rent data was collected from Zillow’s Observed Rent Index, and only tracts with sufficient rent data were used in the regression. A difference-in-differences regression was run using 2018, 2019 and 2020 as the treated year and rent data as the outcome variable. In line with most of the literature, the findings show that the change in rent was statistically insignificant, and no conclusions could be drawn using rent as the outcome variable. Following these results, there is a discussion provided that may provide insight and justification into the insignificant findings.
An Analysis of Wife’s Income & Unemployment Rates on Divorce Rates by Race and Gender from 2000-2024
(2025-04-10) Hwang, Joseph Y.; Sviatschi, Maria MicaelaThe determinants influencing divorce rates include a complex range of internal and external factors that range from sociodemographic differences to policy reforms. From changes in age, income, education, unemployment rates, or religion, divorce rates have always been an area of uncertainty in terms of which factors are most significant. Current literature surrounding divorce and its determinants is fairly extensive but not fully encompassing. Though there are general agreements in terms of the effects of sociodemographic factors and policy reforms on divorce rates, the consensus on income and economic factors such as unemployment rates remains inconclusive. How has society changed since the 1990s? Do societal perceptions of marriage remain the same? How does the economic independence of wives impact husbands? Questions such as these remain fully unanswered, making policy and applications difficult. This thesis employs various methods such as time series and fixed effect regressions to analyze the relationship of wife’s income and unemployment rates at the state and national level. Elements of gender and race are also included to provide further insight and categorization. By analyzing data from 2000 to 2024, the results from the exploration yield negative and positive statistically significant relationships between wife’s income and unemployment rates, indicating shifts towards egalitarianism and the importance of state-level analysis. I hope that my research makes clear the relevance of regional factors, income, and unemployment rates in a more present day context.
Analysis of Sentiment Spillover from the Cryptocurrency Market to the United States Stock Market Between 2014 and 2024
(2025-04-10) Hogan, Jack; Kapor, AdamAnalysis of sentiment spillover from cryptocurrency market to ETFs of US stock market using E-GARCH volatility modeling and VAR coupled with Granger-causality tests.
Anchoring Bias Across Cultures: An Anchoring Bias Comparative Study of the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 on Index Returns
(2025-04-10) Clatworthy, Sebastian; Iijima, RyotaThis paper intends to study the relationship between anchoring bias and financial markets, specifically global indices, comparing the S&P 500 and FTSE 100. Behavioural economics has the ability to influence financial markets but its effects can be difficult to quantify and measure. Hence, this study analyses the impact of heuristics, anchoring bias for this comparative study, and to what extent it can influence investor sentiment and impact index returns with a direct comparison of indices across time. This furthers on previous academic literature through a direct comparison of a heuristic across global indices in an attempt to explain cultural differences in relation to investor sentiment. Through quantifying anchoring bias through a rolling high and low window spanning 250 trading days across a 15 year period, we find statistically significant results, highlighting a substantial difference in anchoring bias between US and UK investors. Furthering the depth of this analysis, we conduct a sub-analysis of different market conditions and the cumulative abnormal returns of indices to investigate how the magnitude and significance of anchoring bias shifts in different economic conditions.
Are Hispanics the New Leaders of Entrepreneurship? Analyzing the Extent to Which Hispanics Lead in New Business Creation in the U.S.
(2025-04-10) Sardina, Xabier; Bhatt, SwatiThis thesis studies the extent to which Hispanics and Latinos may be leading in entrepreneurial activity and new business formation within the United States, and gauging whether this trend is taking place due to culture and access to capital, among other factors. A two-model methodology along with a comparative analysis with Spain, a nation of Hispanic heritage with similar demographic patterns, is to be implemented in an attempt to answer this leading question. Ultimately, the hope of this study is to contribute to literature around the role of culture and geography in what people in America decide to pursue for a living, as well as call attention to the impact that entrepreneurship has on national economies.
Assessing the Academic and Financial Impacts of the Build America Bond (BAB) Program on Independent School Districts: A Dallas & Fort Worth Case Study
(2025-04-10) Tonkovic-Capin, Ivan; Urgun, CanThis paper investigates the academic and financial effects of Dallas Independent School District’s outsized Build America Bond (BAB) issuance in 2010, using a panel of elementary schools in Dallas and Fort Worth from 2003 to 2017. A Difference-in-Differences design compares changes in reading and math “satisfactory” pass rates in Dallas relative to Fort Worth, which did not participate in the BAB program. Initial models suggest significant improvements in math outcomes (+6pp) post-issuance, while reading scores remain statistically unchanged. When stratifying by economic disadvantage, reading gains become significant (+8.7pp) and math gains increase (+9.5pp), pointing to stronger impacts in more advantaged schools. However, placebo and time trend robustness checks reveal signs of pre-treatment divergence, particularly in math, raising concerns about the validity of the parallel trends assumption and suggesting that improvements may reflect a slowing of Dallas ISD’s prior trajectory rather than a post-treatment surge. On the financial side, results show no yield penalty for Dallas ISD’s subsequent rated tax-exempt issuances relative to Fort Worth ISD, and a $7 higher per-capita issuance size, indicating that the BAB program supported larger borrowings without long-term market consequences.
Beyond the Box Score: A Quantitative Analysis of Athlete Compensation in North American Sports
(2025-04-10) Wedbush, Henry O.; Jackson, Emilie AnnBEYOND THE PAC-12: CONFERENCE REALIGNMENT AND THE BURDEN OF TRAVEL ON DIVISION 1 ATHLETES
(2025-04-10) Toomey, Kate S.; Shim, HenryThis thesis uses game-specific data from NCAA Division 1 competitions across various sports and conferences to examine the impact of travel on performance, with a particular focus on the PAC-12 conference realignment. While previous research has largely focused on travel effects in select men’s sports, often at the professional level, this thesis takes a highly innovative approach by analyzing a broader spectrum of collegiate athletics across both sexes. I find that travel significantly impacts performance, though the extent and nature of this effect varies by sport. As conferences continue to expand and longer travel becomes more frequent, gaining a deeper understanding of how these factors affect student-athletes and teams will become increasingly important for universities to comprehend and address.
BUSINESS VALUATION: A COMPARABLE STUDY OF DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW AND COMPARABLE COMPANY ANALYSIS ACROSS INDUSTRIES
(2025-04-04) Astreinidis, Filippos; Urgun, CanThis thesis examines the practical aspects of two widely used widely used valuation methods, the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Comparable Company Analysis (CCA) models. It uses a comparative analysis to assess their potential as well as their limitations across three industries: technology, healthcare, and consumer goods. The paper finds that the DCF method is appropriate for valuing firms with stable cash flows. However, it is subject to excessive assumption bias, and slight miscalculations can impact the valuation results. It also proves that CCA is a strong instrument to value firms in high-growth and volatile sectors. The results stress the need for cautious financial modeling and provide analysts with practical guidance in choosing valuation tools across different market environments.
Charging Ahead, Left Behind? Balancing Local Labor Market Trade-Offs of Recent U.S. Power Plant Retirements and Renewable Energy Expansion
(2025-04-08) Brunnermeier, Anjali; Reichman, NancyThe Renewable Energy Transition has propelled two diverging trends in the United States energy industry: a major uptake in power generation from renewable sources and a series of closures of nonrenewable facilities. I study the counteracting labor market implications of both developments between 2019 and 2023, locating all operating utility-scale solar and wind generators and all 842 power plant and generator retirements. These retirements have been criticized by politicians and interest groups who believe that decarbonization policies are devastating fossil fuel dependent communities. I collect annual employment and earnings data for 3,000+ counties and 680+ commuting zones to evaluate the magnitudes of labor market reactions to plant retirements, measure the economic impacts of wind and solar, and identify disproportionate reactions to plant closures in regions without renewables. Distinct from prior literature, I concentrate on a more recent time period and extend existing methodologies to isolate adverse consequences based on a lack of renewable energy adoption. Using autoregressive two-way fixed effects modeling of same year and next year outcomes, I find that plant retirements had a nonsignificant negative impact on employment but were evidently damaging toward earnings, specifically personal income and total wages in commuting zones. I also identify significant positive economic impacts of solar capacity that do outweigh the average losses from retired plant capacity. However, I establish that regions with zero renewable capacity were more harshly affected by plant retirements, experiencing 3.5 to 4.6 times larger reductions in total wages. These findings highlight several economic benefits of renewable technologies but also recognize disparate trends in labor market quality after power plant closures in nonrenewable reliant economies.
Comparison is the Thief of Joy: An Empirical Study on the Impact of Comparative Income and Other Determinants on Life Satisfaction in South Africa
(2025-04-10) Olnowich, Jennifer; Shim, HenryThis paper explores how relative income, a person’s income compared to those around them, affects life satisfaction in South Africa. Using data from the Gauteng City-Region Observatory’s Quality of Life Survey (2011–2021), the study analyzes the relationship between income, reference group income, and a variety of explanatory variables on subjective and financial well-being, using an ordered probit model. The results show that both absolute and relative income significantly impact general and financial satisfaction. Notably, being richer than one’s peers has a stronger positive effect on well-being than the negative effect of being poorer, which contrasts with traditional theories of income comparison. The study also highlights how race, access to basic services, and social relationships shape satisfaction levels, particularly for historically disadvantaged groups. These findings provide important insights for policymakers aiming to improve well-being, especially in countries burdened by inequality. More importantly, the research offers insights into the social dynamics of competition and comparison, revealing what motivates individuals. In doing so, this paper serves as a broader commentary on society and the relevance of the study in today’s context.
Confronting the Kingpins’ Court: The Impact of OFAC Sanctions on Communities around Cartels and Organized Crime Groups in Mexico
(2025-04-10) Cejas, Gabriela; Dupas, PascalineConventional Growth: The Economic Impact of Presidential Nominating Conventions on Host Cities
(2025-04-03) Jennings, Jack; Bleemer, ZacharyThis paper examines the relationship between cities hosting Presidential Nominating Conventions and economic growth, measured by city GDP, employment rate and tourism through an event study. Additionally, this paper looks at the impact of key convention-related infrastructure investments and the size of the host city to see if either of these factors affected the host city’s post-convention long-term GDP. Previous research on the subject was limited, and failed to find any meaningful correlation between hosting a convention and economic growth, while related research on short-term events and economic growth has resulted in a wide spectrum of results. Compared to their own pre-convention trends and relative to large host cities, the data revealed that small host cities showed significant increases in both short and long-run GDP. However, there is no significant general trend in GDP, employment or tourism for host cities, relative to both pre-convention trends and would-be host cities, and there is no indication that the key infrastructure investment led to long term growth, although it led to a small, non-statistically significant, short term boost.
Crash Course: How Michigan’s Auto Insurance Policy Shapes Risky Driver Behavior
(2025-04-10) Huang, William; Shim, HenryIn July of 2020, Michigan implemented a new auto insurance policy reform that decreased insurance premiums by effectively setting a price ceiling. This paper studies how that new policy reform and a decrease in insurance prices affects the frequency of risky driver behaviors and fatal accidents. By utilizing the synthetic controls method and placebo/permutation tests to control for endogeneity in the difference-in-differences model, this paper finds that the new Michigan auto insurance policy has no statistically significant effect on either risky driver behavior or fatal accident rates. This result suggests that drivers choose their level of care on the road with more consideration for their own health and self-preservation rather than evaluating the monetary cost of an accident. This is contradictory to some of the current literature and frees policymakers from worrying that a reduction in insurance premiums would lead to a more dangerous driving environment.
Dining Through Disaster: An Empirical Analysis of the Jersey Shore Restaurant Industry Following Hurricane Sandy
(2025-04-10) Konovalov, Alex; Urgun, CanThis thesis aims to investigate the economic impact of Hurricane Sandy on the Restaurant industry along the Jersey Shore, a region heavily reliant on tourism and central to the state’s economy. By utilizing a linear regression model with a difference-in-differences framework, combined with establishment-level panel data from 2010-2015, this study compares economic output, through sales and employment metrics, in affected counties to a similar, yet unscathed, control group. The findings of the analysis contradict conventional expectations associated with natural disasters, as food-serving establishments defied anticipated economic disruption. The results revealed no statistically significant decline in either restaurant sales or employment after the hurricane, suggesting that rapid and coordinated recovery efforts, such as government relief funding, eased operational regulations, and shifts in consumer demand, may have effectively counterbalanced the negative economic effects imposed by the storm. The restaurant industry’s response to Hurricane Sandy emphasizes the importance of targeted policy initiatives and community resilience in mitigating economic shocks in affected areas. These findings advocate rethinking the presumed inevitability of economic downturn in the aftermath of natural disasters, especially in industries and regions with strong underlying economic and structural foundations. This thesis contributes to the broader disaster economics literature by highlighting that economic vulnerability to natural disasters is heavily reliant on the region’s internal characteristics, swift recovery protocols, and shifting consumer demand trends.
Disaster at Sea: Estimating the Economic Impacts Posed by a Closure of Maritime Trade in the South China Sea Using Industry Disaggregated Trade Flows
(2025-04-10) Rodriguez, Daniel A.; Becko, John SturmBuilding upon a previous attempt, the study simulates a closure of the South China Sea to maritime trade and estimates welfare changes for economies around the world. Heightened tensions in the region have increased the risk of outright conflict between major powers to the highest level in decades, so the author interacts trade distance data with country-country trade data in both a CES model and multi-industry model to offer refined estimates of gains from trade in the region. The results estimate het- erogeneous and severe welfare declines for many countries, though to a more modest degree than those of previous estimates. A multi-industry approach accounting for heterogeneity in price and trade elasticity is shown to magnify implied gains from trade than does a CES model. Analysis suggests both models offer distinct geopolit- ical incentive structures that may lend explanatory value for nations’ grand strategic moves.
Disparities in Climate Threat Perception: Lessons from LMICs and HICs
(2025-04-10) Adnan Khan, Jihan; Dupas, PascalineAwareness of climate threats plays a vital role in enabling households and institutions to adapt their behavior, build resilience, and support mitigation efforts. My study investigates the divergent impacts of climate-related disasters on public perceptions of climate risk, mental health concern, and institutional trust across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income countries (HICs). Using repeated cross-sectional data from the World Risk Poll (2019–2023) and a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach with country fixed effects, it examines how exposure to climate shocks shapes individual attitudes and responses over time. The findings reveal significant disparities between LMICs and HICs. In LMICs, public sentiment remains largely unchanged post-shock, with limited evidence of belief updating in terms of how individuals perceive climate-induced threats, or heightened concern. Even in LMICs with high levels of initial awareness about climate threats, exposure appears to lead to desensitization rather than increased risk perception. By contrast, in HICs, high-exposure regions report greater perceived climate threat, particularly among younger and tertiary-educated populations. Demographic factors such as age, gender, education level, and urbanicity play critical roles in shaping individual responses to climate shocks. While exposure is associated with increased environmental concern in HICs, structural barriers — including weak institutions and limited access to information — constrain belief updating in LMICs. By integrating cross-national data, my research contributes to a more global understanding of climate vulnerability and resilience. It emphasizes the importance of context-specific approaches to addressing climate risks and highlights that patterns observed in HICs may not be replicable in LMICs, where structural constraints and data availability limit current research.
Does 'Who Cares Wins' hold through business cycles? A study on how economic climate influences consumer behavior towards ESG
(2025-04-10) Scheske, Zoë; Peng, LinThis paper explores the relationship between corporate ESG (Environment, Social & Governance) and product sales, using granular monthly retail scanner data for North American sales from 2020 through 2024. I estimate this relationship using ordinary least squares models, first to reveal trends within the baseline relationship by controlling for product and month level heterogeneity. Second, I offer a novel contribution by investigating whether this relationship is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, controlling for product fixed effects. My results reinforce the existing finding that company ESG (when discounted according to controversies) is positively correlated with sales performance. I show that this relationship is amplified in the sales of “budget” priced and dampened in the sales of “luxury” priced products. Notably, I find that periods of high inflation and high unemployment suppress the sales benefit associated with corporate ESG, with some evidence that periods of high consumer sentiment may strengthen it. These impacts, whether marginally positive or negative, tend to be driven by products in the high or “luxury” price ranges. Nevertheless, ESG maintains a positive relationship with sales throughout all conditions studied. These findings have important economic implications: for the private sector, investment in ESG is a robust strategy consistently related to a stronger sales performance, even during adverse economic climates. For the public sector, the use of potential demand-driving policy corrections could be considered to provide stimulus for consumers to maintain sustainable shopping habits.