Rethinking the Arc: An Econometric and Game-Theoretical Analysis of the NBA’s Three-Point Reliance and Proposed Rule Changes

Abstract

Over the past decade, the National Basketball Association (NBA) has witnessed a historic rise in three-point shooting frequency, raising concern over the direction of the game. Fueled by a more comprehensive understanding of basketball analytics, this trend has led to the decline of the mid-range game and has produced more repetitive shot selections. Currently, over 42% of total shot attempts are from behind the three-point line, and the majority of the remainder are taken in the paint. My thesis investigates the degree to which three-point shooting is impacting the game today, and proposes two rule changes to mitigate this impact: the extension of the three-point line and the addition of a four-point line. To do this, I use a combination of econometric, statistical, and game-theoretical methods to motivate, establish, and analyze what these rule changes would look like over time. The results suggest that shifting the three-point line back to 26 feet and eliminating the corner three would return shot distributions to a 2011-2012 level, the season where ratings peaked since the turn of the century. Additionally, this paper analyzes the dynamics of a four-point line and its potential ramifications. After taking into account how player skill would develop over time, the results suggest placing a four-point line at 33 feet. While both of these lines would significantly decrease three-point shooting frequency, I argue that extending the three-point line to 26 feet most directly addresses the league's current issues. Overall, this thesis explores how economic strategies can depict the three-point reliance in the NBA, and analyzes the potential impact of rule changes.