Inequality, Success, and Strategy in European Football: An Econometric Study

Abstract

Football is the most popular sport worldwide. Given the range of cultures and backgrounds that produce top-tier players, strategy and style of play in professional football vary greatly and evolve rapidly. In recent years, however, football strategy for top-division teams in Europe has begun to converge on a universal strategy that promotes keeping possession of the ball and connecting a lot of passes. This thesis explores this emerging universal strategy and its effectiveness across different leagues and for teams with different payrolls. Specifically, the thesis aims to determine if adopting a “ball-dominant” strategy, characterized by high possession of the ball and a high rate of passing, yields more on-field and financial success for European football clubs across the top 5 leagues: Germany, England, France, Italy, Spain. This analysis is done using data from the past 7 seasons. Specifically, OLS models and Instrument Variable models are used to determine the relationships between style of play, on-field success, and financial inequality. This thesis serves as evidence to support European football’s universal convergence of strategy; there is a significant positive relationship between adopting a “ball-dominant” strategy and increased on-field success as well as financial success.