Governance, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and a Shift Toward China in El Salvador under Nayib Bukele

Abstract

Since pragmatic populist Nayib Bukele was elected president of El Salvador in 2019, significant erosion of constitutionally-protected democratic norms has taken place in the country, threatening the rights of Salvadorans. However, the president maintains high levels of domestic support due to his approach to the nation’s security policy which prioritized the problem’s resolution over individual rights like due process. This support has facilitated his move toward authoritarianism, further jeopardizing the rights of Salvadorans. As El Salvador shifts toward a focus on the economy, it relies heavily on foreign sources of funding. While the United States has long been its dominant source of funding, tensions between the two countries arose over Bukele’s authoritarian practices. However, rather than adjust his policies back toward democracy to improve relations, Bukele was able to pivot to a new great power in the region for funding without making policy concessions: China. As China competes for influence with the United States and provides an alternative source of funding for El Salvador as it moves toward authoritarianism, the United States’s leverage for reinforcing democracy in the country is weakened. This has critical implications for democracy in El Salvador and the entire region as Chinese influence grows throughout Latin America while it continues its trend away from democracy. This study qualitatively seeks to understand the impacts of increased Chinese influence on Salvadoran authoritarianism. Specifically, it questions whether China reinforces moves away from democracy and by what primary mechanisms it does so. Using government reports, social media, news articles, NGO publications, three original interviews with Salvadoran sociologists, and group meetings with a lawyer and a leading Salvadoran journalist, I investigated this question. My findings suggest that El Salvador’s engagement with China is pragmatic and economic rather than ideological, and, accordingly, the primary impacts of Chinese engagement on Salvadoran democracy are material. The relationship, I find, harms democracy in El Salvador by (1) facilitating authoritarian practices by providing an alternative to American aid conditioned on adherence to democratic principles, and (2) potentially exacerbating domestic income inequality through Chinese impacts on the labor market and trade, specifically through the tourism industry. Drawing on these findings, I present policy recommendations for US policymakers that can inform their attempts to reinforce democracy in El Salvador by drawing on the nation’s advantages in informal networks. As Chinese engagement increases throughout Latin America, these policy recommendations may become useful in the context of other nations as well.