Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats? The Effect of the Panama Canal Expansion on U.S. East Coast Ports

Abstract

The Panama Canal Authority completed a major expansion project in the summer of 2016, allowing larger container ships to transit the Panama Canal. This paper analyzes the effect of the expansion on U.S. East Coast ports, where these larger ships will dock and unload their cargo. I use a conditional logit model to identify the factors that drive shippers to choose a port, then apply those findings to the East Coast to predict each port’s future market share of imports from East Asia. I find that the major Southeastern ports—Savannah, Charleston, Norfolk—have the location and infrastructure to gain market share at the expense of the Port of New York and New Jersey. The limited shipment data available since the expansion provides evidence to support this conclusion.