Borders in the Sky: Strengthening the Resilience of the Airline Industry During Geopolitical Conflict

Abstract

Aviation has been one of the most consequential inventions in human history, expanding the ability to connect families, friends, cultures, languages, and politics. The industry rapidly recovered after the COVID-19 pandemic,with over 38.7 million flights in 2024, which resembles numbers prior to the pandemic. Governments throughout the world have understood the significance of airlines as diplomatic actors that foster cultural and economic exchange. However, the ability to connect countries has been compromised due to airspace shutdowns related to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Iran proxy conflict. When sovereign airspace is shut down, airlines are forced to navigate around these regions and scramble for alternatives. At times, airlines have been forced to fly over open airspace in regions with hazardous airspace and limited Air Traffic Control capabilities,especially in Afghanistan. The situation poses not only safety questions, but moral ones as well. Government aviation agencies such as the Federal Aviation Authority have provided guidance to some of the airlines, but the majority of governments do not provide this level of risk assessment for its airlines, which forces the airlines involved to interpret what other agencies are saying. The International Civil Aviation Organization, a United Nations agency that promotes international air navigation principles and fosters the development of international air transport, has provided practices and standards for its 193 member states and the states’ airlines. Its risk assessment program for airspace safety, however, does not provide sufficient risk assessment guidance to airlines, which consequently scramble to adapt to these geopolitical situations. The thesis poses the question “How can the airline industry become more proactive and adaptive during times of geopolitical conflict and airspace shutdowns?” To answer this question, the thesis highlights that beyond their existence as a business, airlines have economic and cultural importance for countries. Then, I utilize Elinor Ostrom’s theory of “Governing the Commons” to understand how airspace and the airspace system is a common pool resource, which provides a basis for understanding how to create a standardized risk assessment. Using qualitative research in the form of interviews and an analysis of current policies, I examine the current status of risk assessment and the barriers that airlines face when trying to navigate around the Middle East, Ukraine, and Russia, and some of the issues involved in operating flights over Afghanistan. The thesis concludes by providing short- and long-term policy recommendations concerning current and potential future geopolitical conflicts that require cooperation from three primary stakeholders: airlines, multilateral aviation agencies, and national governments. The policy recommendations center around the need for a standardized, global risk assessment program that should be developed by airlines and the ICAO, which requires constant support from national governments. The thesis further identifies changes within the aviation environment that are necessary to maintain the integrity of a global risk assessment program to ensure the resilience of airlines during times of geopolitical uncertainty.