In the Eye of the Hurricane: The Impact of the Syrian Refugee Crisis on Jordanian Political Stability

Abstract

In May 2014 the Syrian refugee crisis will enter its fourth year. A major host country of refugees already, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan continues to absorb refugees as the fighting in Syria continues. With the aftereffects of the Arab Spring still felt in the kingdom, the Hashemites must now contend with a humanitarian crisis while also preserving their hard-won monopoly over political power. Some argue that the refugee crisis will trigger the decline of Hashemite rule over Jordan and lead to political chaos similar to that seen in Syria and Egypt. Others, citing the monarchy’s political acumen and outside support, are confident in King Abdullah II’s ability to weather the refugee crisis. This thesis endeavors to answer two questions: what is the extent of the political impact of the Syrian refugee crisis on Jordan, and how will these effects continue to unfold over time? What will be the impact of the refugee crisis on Jordan’s political stability in the long run? This thesis contends that while the current impact of the Syrian refugee crisis is limited, the crisis may threaten Jordan’s political stability in the future due to the high probability that Syrian refugees will be present in Jordan for generations to come. The monarchy’s current response, though temporarily effective, leaves Jordan susceptible to the potentially destabilizing economic, social, and political effects of the crisis. The implication of this thesis is that the monarchy should adopt a liberal, development-oriented policy towards refugees. Two initial steps towards implementing such a policy would involve giving Syrian refugees the right to work and making long-term development projects the centerpiece of the refugee response. Though the political and economic costs of such a policy appear high, the alternative of allowing the crisis’ current impacts to unfold is dangerous to both Jordan and its external supporters.