Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge Risk Analysis in Tampa, FL

Abstract

Storm surge and the resulting flooding from of hurricanes are a significant economic risk for coastal areas. Their frequency will likely increase in the future due to sea- level rise, potential changes to storm climatology and urban development. This thesis combines building stock data, storm surge modeling, and Monte Carlo simulations to probabilistically analyze how the economic risks facing Tampa, FL will change as a result of these factors. This thesis uses the present value of future losses and expected annual damage to estimate the economic risk facing Tampa, FL. Analytical and Monte Carlo methods are used to calculate these measures. The analytical and Monte Carlo methods are theoretically and numerically consistent. It is found that sea-level rise, population growth, and storm climatological changes all could increase future economic risk significantly for the city of Tampa. The joint effect of all three of these factors is a dramatic increase in the risk to Tampa over the twenty-first century.