From Crisis to Opportunity: The Ripple Effect of COVID-19 on Rhino Conservation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

This thesis explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on rhino poaching in Kenya, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Namibia. Using both regression analysis, along with country-specific case studies, the study examines what lessons can be learned from this pandemic. When the COVID-19 pandemic began, poaching rates plummeted with strict lockdowns severely limiting poachers' abilities to kill and transport rhino horns. However, as the lockdown restrictions loosened, wildlife trafficking networks quickly rebounded and caused poaching rates to increase in multiple countries. The regression analysis showed that economic and governance variables alone do not fully explain changes in poaching, pointing to the importance of enforcement capacity, transparency, and local dynamics. Through case studies and interviews, this thesis identifies the policies that proved most effective during the COVID-19 pandemic and uses those lessons to develop a targeted set of regional and international policy recommendations. These include the creation of a multilateral enforcement body, expanded public-private collaboration, community-based conservation incentives, and increased international pressure on consumer countries. This original research demonstrates that rhino poaching is a multifaceted problem that will require long-term, coordinated, and proactive solutions to reduce poaching, disrupt trafficking networks, and ensure the survival of the endangered African rhino populations.