Extreme Weather Events, Climate Change Conceptions, and the Role of Partisanship

Abstract

Climate change is fueling extreme weather, with anthropogenic global warming causing stronger and more frequent storms. Given the importance of personal experiences in decision-making surrounding a difficult-to-grasp phenomenon like climate change, one might expect extreme weather events to draw attention toward the issue and help spur climate action. This paper calls that expectation into question. Overarchingly, I find some evidence that extreme weather experiences result in increased concerns in the realm of global warming but that these concerns fade over time. I also demonstrate a stark partisan divide in how extreme weather events impact climate change concerns. Among Democrats, storm activity seems to fuel lasting concern about climate change. Among Republicans, increased attention toward climate change in the wake of a storm lasts only temporarily, and more exposure to extreme weather over time corresponds with less concern surrounding the issue. This inconsistency demonstrates clearly how partisan preconceived notions can lead to vastly different interpretations of similar events and realities. It also demonstrates a potential explanation for the broader lack of consensus within the literature surrounding whether extreme weather impacts climate change views, as the effects are only made clear when disaggregating across party lines. Additionally, I find that political environment may have some impact on extreme weather event attribution in the short-term but does not yield a long-term impact. I also investigate climate literacy as an indicator of how extreme weather may impact climate perceptions but find fewer clear results in this realm.