Grabbing the Tail of the Dragon: Understanding China’s International Crisis Response

Abstract

What factors influence China’s decision whether or not to escalate international crises? Using policy tracing of the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, the Belgrade embassy bombing, and the EP-3 incident , this paper shows that domestic audience costs fail to predict Chinese crisis response, while understanding elite interest is a much better indicator. Protests do not have the power to control crisis response, especially when they are advocating for a course of action that runs counter to elite objectives. The best way to understand China’s crisis response is by understanding the complex interplay between various elite factions. In order to minimize risk of war in future crises, it is important to maintain channels of communication with Chinese elites and to understand who has the power and motivation to escalate or de-escalate a crisis.