Comparing Transfer Market Activity of Europe's Top Four Soccer Leagues

Abstract

This thesis models the transfer market activity of the English, Spanish, German, and Italian first division soccer league using a simple ordinary least squares regression with interaction covariates to determine if there is any statistically significant difference between the leagues. The myth this paper seeks to prove or disprove is that each league has a specific style unique to its teams and that this style is evident in each league’s player acquisitions in the transfer market. The paper quantifies the league myths using player statistics available on the Internet from the past two seasons and regresses these against the transfer fee, accepted as the player’s value in the market. If the null hypothesis holds, there will be no significant difference between the control league and the other three in the dependent variables that are meant to represent the control league’s style. Conversely, if there is a statistically significant difference between the control group and the other three in the style proxy covariates, then the null hypothesis will be rejected for that covariate. Additionally, the thesis discusses prior literature, limitations of the method, and any conclusions that result.