Modeling the relationship between climate and conflict: Nigerian intergroup conflict, Boko Haram violence and the Israel-Palestine Conflict

Abstract

I test the hypothesis that the addition of temperature and precipitation terms improves the predictive power of linear regression models of conflict in West Africa and Israel-Palestine. Furthermore, I aim to quantify the effect of these variables on the probability of conflict incidence. I find that temperature is a significant predictor of intergroup civil conflict incidence in Nigeria and that precipitation is a significant predictor of Boko Haram violent event incidence. I find no significant relationship between climate and the probability of violence associated with the Israel/Palestine conflict.