Face in the Race: Descriptive Representation in the 2008, 2016, and 2020 Democratic Primaries

Abstract

Do people disproportionately vote for those who look like them? This paper examines descriptive representation and linked fate in recent Democratic primaries. Specifically, I look at the effect of race and gender on voter preference, as measured by the American National Election Survey, polling data, and individual campaign contributions. Overall, I find that there was a significant effect of shared race and a lesser effect of shared gender on support for a particular candidate. In 2008, I find that Barack Obama benefitted from black support, and Hillary Clinton benefitted to a lesser degree from female support. In 2016, Clinton had an outsize percentage of female support, but not to a statistically significant degree. Finally, among the 12 candidates I examine in 2020, support based on shared race was consistently high, while support based on shared gender was less so. Ramifications and future expansions are discussed.