资本管制政策的影响: A look at Chinese De Jure Capital Controls and Balance of Payments

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between capital controls and balance of payments. The motivation for this is grounded in Mundel-Fleming’s economic trilemma to examine the effects of China’s gradual shift to free capital flows. The capital control variable used in this paper is from a self-constructed index developed using the methodology developed by Jahan and Wang (2016). Since capital controls is a policy variable, this paper uses a VARX model to estimate the effects of this change and an impulse response function to analyze the effects. I find that a one standard deviation shock to capital control policy results in a one standard deviation decrease in the current account and suggest that China balance their capital flows, allowing for inflows to add to their reserves, and direct monetary and fiscal policy to aiding their savings rate.