Lifting the veil: A study of the effectiveness of Western sanctions against Iran between 2006 and 2015 in preventing Iran from achieving a nuclear breakout capability

Abstract

This thesis is a study of the effectiveness of the two different sets of sanctions—namely, targeted sanctions denying Iran access to nuclear materials and technology from international entities and economic and financial sanctions—imposed by the EU, the US, and the UN against Iran between 2006 and 2015 to prevent Iran from achieving a nuclear breakout capability, which I define as the capability needed to produce one nuclear weapon. Through a rigorous historical and political study of Iran’s nuclear developments and the Iranian regime’s responses to the different types of sanctions imposed against it between 2006 and 2015, I contend that the targeted sanctions imposed by the West during this period were marginally effective in preventing Iran from achieving a nuclear breakout capability. While the targeted sanctions frustrated Iran’s progress toward achieving a nuclear breakout capability to some extent, Iran made significant strides toward achieving a nuclear breakout capability between 2006 and 2015. The set of economic and financial sanctions imposed by the West from 2009 onward, however, succeeded in ultimately preventing Iran from achieving a nuclear breakout capability. The unprecedented economic and financial hardships induced by the West’s economic and financial sanctions against the regime changed the Iranian regime’s otherwise hardline posture to continue apace with its progress toward achieving a nuclear breakout capability in defiance of Western sanctions. As such, in 2015, Iran ratified the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement that significantly curtailed its nuclear program and granted international inspectors tremendous latitude in inspecting and monitoring all aspects and facilities of Iran’s nuclear program, thereby shutting all pathways for Iran to achieve a nuclear breakout capability long into the future. This thesis makes significant contributions to the extant scholarly literature on the effectiveness of sanctions as a coercive foreign policy instrument in achieving various objectives. This thesis highlights—among other things—the potency of economic and financial sanctions compared to targeted, multilateral sanctions in stopping nuclear proliferation and inducing an otherwise recalcitrant and hostile regime to comply with the demands of the sanctioning entity when the extant scholarly consensus on sanctions effectiveness posits otherwise. This thesis, moreover, provides crucial lessons and insights for Western policymakers, diplomats, and analysts alike on how to best engage with the Iranian regime to resolve the current iteration of the Iranian nuclear crisis.