It Will All Come Down to Turnout: An Economic Analysis of Employment and Voter Turnout

Abstract

This study explores the connection between voter turnout and employment in US Presidential elections in an attempt to understand the reasons for low voter turnout in these elections. It takes an empirical approach to the question of economic voting that economists and political scientists have explored in both theoretical and empirical frameworks, starting with Anthony Downs (1957) and extending to the modern day. Using Two-Stage Least Squares Regressions, this study tests for whether employment has an effect on voter turnout. It also analyzes the effect of the change in employment on the change in voter turnout between election years. In line with Kofi Charles and Melvin Stephens’ study of economic voting (2011), this study assesses the role than information plays in a voter turnout in conjunction with employment. The implication is that increasing voter turnout in the US will require a decrease in the logistical costs of getting to the polls (e.g. Saturday elections or opening polls earlier and/or closing them later) in order to incentivize voting behavior among the employed.