“IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID” HOW ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AFFECTS THE PARTISAN GENDER GAP AMONG YOUNG AMERICANS

Abstract

Young men and women in America share the same economy and the same political environment, yet they are diverging in partisan and ideological identity. This thesis argues that gendered baseline expectations about labor market position shape how young men and women interpret the economic uncertainty of their time, triggering distinct emotional reactions that lead men towards the Republican Party and women towards the Democratic Party, directed through the reputational expertise of parties on gender quality in the workforce. An analysis of ANES data from 1952 to 2024 finds suggestive evidence that the partisan gender gap widens during periods of economic pessimism. A survey experiment finds that men exposed to economic threats targeted towards men report significantly higher increases in resentment, and women exposed to economic threats targeted at women report significantly higher increases in warmth towards Progressivism. These findings suggest that gendered economic uncertainty activates meaningful emotional and political responses in young men and women, while demonstrating the need for future research on how sustained exposure to such threats influences partisan alignment over time.