Explaining Czechia and Slovakia’s Divergence on China; A qualitative examination using Robert Jervis’s Signals and Indices framework

Abstract

Czechia and Slovakia share significant overlaps in culture, history, language, geopolitics, and foreign policy orientations. Yet, their approaches towards China stand out as stark points of divergence. Czechia has historically been critical of China's human rights and rule-of-law issues. After a period of warmer ties with China, it has returned to this China-sceptic stance. For Slovakia, China has historically been a low-salience issue. Yet in recent years, under the leadership of Prime Minister Robert Fico, it has inched closer towards China rhetorically. Existing literature has yet to explain this peculiar divergence of two otherwise similar nations. The thesis evaluates three competing explanations: economic incentives from EU membership, elite leadership orientation, and domestic institutional constraints. These are assessed across four key event windows: EU accession (2004), the global financial crisis (2008-2010), the 16+1 initiative (2012-2016), and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2022-present), using a combination of economic data and qualitative analysis of political signals and indices, under Robert Jervis’s signals and indices framework. The findings show that economic incentives alone cannot account for divergence. Instead, the interaction between elite leadership orientation and domestic institutional constraints provides the strongest explanation. Czechia’s normative traditions and institutional checks constrain pro-China shifts, whereas Slovakia’s more executive-driven system enables leadership preferences to translate more directly into policy.