BACKSLIDING INTO BRUSSELS: DEMOCRATIC EROSION AND CITIZEN PERCEPTIONS OF EUROPEAN UNION LEGITIMACY

Abstract

This thesis investigates how citizens in democratically backsliding European Union (EU) member states shift their trust toward the EU as domestic governance deteriorates and whether the basis of that trust differs from patterns in non-backsliding member states. Using fourteen waves of Standard Eurobarometer data from 2008 to 2021, findings show that within countries experiencing democratic decline, citizens who are dissatisfied with the national governments how elevated trust in the EU specifically through procedural legitimacy evaluations (the perception that EU decision-making is fair, inclusive, and accountable), while evaluations of EU output legitimacy (perception based on the performance of the EU) remain comparatively weaker and less consistent. Cross-national differences between backsliding and stable member states are not strongly confirmed, which suggests that the compensatory dynamic is primarily a within-country response to democratic backsliding over time rather than a categorical difference between member states.