The Price of Victory: How Starting Quarterback Salary Share Impacts Winning in the National Football League

Abstract

Do higher-paid quarterbacks win more in the National Football League (NFL)? This thesis examines the relationship between quarterback (QB) salary levels and team success in the NFL. Because NFL teams operate under a salary cap, a larger share allocated to the quarterback leaves a smaller share available for the rest of the roster. Using salary data from all 32 NFL teams from 2011 through 2025, this study analyzes 480 observations to evaluate that relationship. This thesis’ primary measure of success is playoff qualification, though it also takes into account regular-season win percentage, division titles, advancing to the Divisional Round, reaching the Conference Championship, appearing in the Super Bowl, and winning the Super Bowl. The results show that higher quarterback pay is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level only for making the playoffs and advancing to the Divisional Round. Specifically, each additional percentage point of a team’s salary cap allocated to its starting quarterback increases the odds of making the playoffs by 1.46 percentage points. By contrast, quarterback salary does not have a statistically significant effect on the other five measures of team success. However, other quarterback-related variables do, including if the quarterback is on a rookie contract, Pro Bowl selections, and the quarterback’s prior-year quarterback rating (QBR). Therefore, this thesis finds that higher-paid quarterbacks do make the playoffs at a higher rate but quarterback salary share does not impact making deeper playoff runs than the Divisional Round.