Skiing Through Stabilization: Evaluating the Impact of California’s Tenant Protection Act (AB 1482) on Housing Market Dynamics

Abstract

This thesis evaluates the effects of California’s 2019 Tenant Protection Act (AB 1482), a rent control policy that caps annual rent increases, on regional housing market dynamics. Using a Difference-in-Differences framework, I assess whether the policy produced measurable changes in housing supply, occupancy, and rental prices in treated California regions, and whether it generated spillover effects in adjacent unregulated areas. The analysis draws on data from the American Community Survey (ACS) and rental listings from Altos Research. First, I compare three California regions—Eastern Sierra, North San Bernardino, and North Pasadena—with a control group in Elko, Nevada to estimate the direct effects of rent control. Second, I conduct border analyses to identify spillover effects and regulatory leakage in the Lake Tahoe region, a housing market divided by the California–Nevada state line, by comparing Lake Tahoe, Nevada to both Elko, Nevada and Lake Tahoe, California.

The results reveal limited direct effects of AB 1482 on housing supply and occupancy, but broader impacts on rent growth, particularly for smaller units. In some cases, rental prices increased more rapidly after policy implementation, suggesting unintended consequences such as constrained supply or landlord adjustments to regulation. Evidence of regulatory spillovers into Lake Tahoe, Nevada further indicates that rent control policies can influence nearby unregulated markets. These findings contribute to the rent control policy debate by highlighting both the intended outcomes and unintended side effects of rent stabilization.