The Paper Tiger That Fights Back: Evaluating the Drivers Behind China's Nuclear Modernization

Abstract

This thesis interrogates the distinctive political drivers behind China’s unprecedented nuclear expansion over the last 5 years. By examining historical shifts to the recent boom in China’s nuclear arsenal expansion, this thesis will argue that the shift reflects strategic departures from decades of restraint. By conducting a comparative analysis of Chinese leadership from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping, this thesis finds that nuclear development has been shaped more so by elite perceptions of national interests coupled with their respective political authority rather than evolving security threats. Xi Jinping’s power centralization and his growing global ambitions have encouraged nuclear modernization, using it as a tool of statecraft. To uncover the tension, this thesis will explore why China refrained from earlier nuclear expansion, why it is expanding now, what this says about China’s novel strategic posture, and further implications for US policy and regional stability.