ANGLES OF THE LITHIUM TRIANGLE: The Degree to Which Lithium Nationalization Affects China’s Ability to Corner the Lithium Market in Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia

Abstract

The lithium triangle, Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia, holds the world's largest known lithium deposits. Lithium is a key resource for energy storage in technologies such as drones, electronic devices, and electric vehicles. As of 2026, China controls over 80% of the global lithium processing capabilities and is heavily dependent on the lithium triangle to supply its raw materials. Each lithium triangle state has different lithium governance strategies to attract international investors. Argentina has an open market, Chile has imposed partial state involvement in lithium projects, and Bolivia has fully nationalized its lithium reserves. The nationalization of a resource is intended to increase state involvement, directing more profits to the host state rather than to international investors. This thesis analyzed the degree to which each state has nationalized its lithium reserves and how that has affected China’s ability to continue dominating the lithium supply chain. Through this analysis, it became clear that China is the only state with access to every lithium triangle state, regardless of their nationalization strategy. While the nationalization efforts were intended to dilute international investors' access to the lithium industry, they created more opportunities for China to rise as the only winner. China’s dominance has allowed it to advance its lithium processing and manufacturing capabilities and place them under strict guidelines that prohibit sharing with international companies. This move will allow China to continue dominating the industry and make it significantly more difficult for the resource-rich states to develop their own lithium value chains and benefit from the profits of their resources. A diverse international investment market will create competition across pricing, demand, and technological advancements, driving the industry and sharing of technologies. The findings suggest that allowing a diverse set of international investors will enable the host state to capture a larger share of the profits from its resources.