Huffing and Puffing: How U.S. Industrial Foreign Policy Decisions Are Affected by Zero-Sum Arguments

Abstract

Using a mix of primary and secondary sources, this research defines and assesses zero-sum thinking and its effects on foreign industrial policy decisions in the United States and China. Zero-sum arguments are widespread across the geopolitical and media spectrum, making the general public susceptible to unified agreement with these arguments. Zero-sum thinking around policy is defined as a complete disregard for aggregate benefits and complete tunnel vision for distributional consequences. By comparing and contrasting the electric vehicle and battery, semiconductor, and lithium industries, it is apparent that these geopolitically and technologically connected industries have more in common. Using examples from the media and politicians, I confirm that they are vulnerable to misinterpretation and false promises. Following this comparison, I argue that unilateral decisions in one industry have effects on all of its adjacent industries. My findings suggest that failure to effectively evaluate arguments can lead to ill-informed policy decisions, which contribute to more zero-sum arguments; this prevents the industries from reaching their full potential. In the future, information consumption education needs to be more widespread among the general population.