REACHING FOR TRADE LIBERALIZATION IN AFRICA: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE DETERMINANTS OF THE ADOPTION OF THE AFRICA CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (AFCFTA)

Abstract

This paper investigates the factors influencing the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) at the national level. It employs a comparative approach to assess how various economic, political, and infrastructural factors affect both the timeline for ratification and actual trade activity within the AfCFTA framework. Utilizing simple linear regressions and isolating the effects of these factors, this study finds that countries with higher human development take longer to ratify the agreement and are more likely to engage in trade under the AfCFTA. Landlocked countries tend to ratify faster but are less likely to be currently trading. Additionally, countries with more memberships in Africa’s regional economic communities tend to ratify faster and are more likely to be trading. Finally, while there is no evidence of governance and infrastructure impacting ratification time, countries with a higher ease of doing business and more infrastructure investments are more likely to trade under the agreement, with these two factors being most prominent in explaining the likelihood of trade.