On the Path Dependence of Infrastructure Logic in Transit Planning

Abstract

This project investigates the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (MTA) 2025-2029 Operational Budget and Capital Plan to examine how transit investment decisions in New York City reflect shifting patterns in ridership, demographics, and ac- cessibility. Specifically, it investigates how historical infrastructure logic continues to greatly influence present-day planning despite undoubtable changes in commuter behavior and urban growth through the lens of path dependence. Using a conjunction of ridership forecasting models, borough-level investment equity analysis, and inflation-adjusted efficiency metrics, the thesis finds that capital investments remain disproportionately allocated and accessibility investments remain skewed towards Manhattan, although boroughs like Brooklyn and Queens experience both faster population growth and stronger ridership recovery. Such findings suggest inertia in the MTA’s planning process, raising concerns about its ability to not only ensure equity in the people it supports but also how well it adapts to an ever-transforming metropolis.