Modeling the Impact of Climate on Congenital Toxoplasmosis: A Systematic Approach

Abstract

Congenital toxoplasmosis is a disease caused by initial maternal infection with toxoplasmosis that is then transmitted vertically to the fetus. The result is a myriad of health problems for the fetus caused by damage during pregnancy. Human infection typically occurs through contact with contaminated soil or water and the consumption of infected undercooked meat. Climate change, particularly rising global temperatures, influences the burden of congenital toxoplasmosis. Temperature can affect the survivability of Toxoplasma gondii, which in turn impacts the force of infection (FOI). When the parasite is rarer, the FOI could decrease, potentially leading to fewer women infected before pregnancy. This could result in more primary infections occurring during pregnancy, increasing the burden of congenital toxoplasmosis. A mathematical model was used to analyze how temperature influences the burden of congenital toxoplasmosis across different scenarios. Results showed that the burden varied with temperature, with 25°C having the greatest burden and the highest FOI. The model partially supports the hypothesis that an optimum temperature at 25°C is associated with a higher burden but does not support the prediction that a decreased FOI would increase burden. These findings demonstrate how climate change could alter the incidence of congenital toxoplasmosis requiring global health systems to adapt. Further research is needed to clarify this relationship, but these results suggest temperature plays a significant role. Public health actions should be taken to minimize the potential impacts of the disease due to a warming world.