Deep in the Heart of Texas: Modeling Compound Hurricane Wind and Heatwave Hazards in Power Grid Outages

Abstract

Deep in the Heart of Texas: Modeling Compound Hurricane Wind and Heatwave Hazards in Power Grid Outages develops a modeling framework to evaluate how compound hazards, specifically hurricane-induced winds and extreme heat conditions, influence the magnitude of power outages experienced by customers across Texas counties. The analysis is conducted at the county level using climate projections under the SSP245, a moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario, and the SSP585, a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. This work focuses on heatwave occurrence and wind-related impacts as primary drivers of outages and examines how these disruptions affect populations based on socio-economic characteristics, such as median income and families below the poverty level. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to predict possible power outage outcomes and trends across increasingly severe wind field return periods, climate scenarios, and projected air temperature increases. This work finds that in longer return periods, wind damage saturates the power grid to a threshold, so there is no residual vulnerability for heat to amplify. This work also finds that population is the strongest predictor of compound outages and outcomes, while income is a moderate but significant predictor of compound outages. A group of Texas counties are identified as hotspots for hurricane-induced winds and extreme heat conditions. In the face of potential increases in outage risks and vulnerability, it is important to create resilience measures that can account for compound hazards.