Who’s Leading Whom? Time Series Analysis of Public Opinion on Immigration in the 21st Century

Abstract

Over the past 25 years, immigration has become an important issue in American politics. But who drives increased salience of immigration: the public, the media, or politicians? And is increased salience of immigration caused by actual increases in undocumented immigration? This thesis uses the Granger causality test to analyze four time series: a public opinion poll on the salience of immigration, media stories about immigration, mentions of immigration in the Congressional Record, and monthly border apprehensions. The tests show that increased salience of immigration among the public is strongly caused by the media, not by politicians. In fact, it finds that the public then influences the level of salience of immigration among politicians. Finally, increases in monthly border apprehensions cause salience of immigration to increase among the public.