The Potency of an Epidemic: Examining the Fentanyl Crisis and Presidential Voting Trends

Abstract

The effects of the fentanyl crisis on US voter trends has not received much attention from researchers. While multiple scholars have investigated the effects of the overall opioid crisis on voting patterns, zero studies research the relationship between voting trends and the fentanyl-dominated portion of the epidemic. This study employs two way fixed effects regression model analyses using a dataset of 730 counties, each with observations on fentanyl overdose rates, socioeconomic variables, and voting results from the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. I find that an increase of one fentanyl overdose death per 100,000 people correlates with a .03% decrease in voter turnout. Contrary to findings regarding the overall opioid epidemic, fentanyl overdose death rates have no relationship to Republican vote share. These findings illuminate the fentanyl epidemic’s effect on civic engagement, which can hurt government representation in affected communities. Moreover, better data collection policies on fentanyl overdose deaths can create more accurate analyses for the future.