PERCEPTION VS. REALITY IN 713: GRASSROOTS ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL POLARIZATION ON CIVIC ENGAGEMENT IN HOUSTON

Abstract

There is a consensus that political polarization is harmful to American democracy, but much of this sentiment is based on intuition: there is a general lack of connection between polarization as a concept and actual changes to individual behavior. I examine the question: what is the impact of living in a politically polarized environment on an individual’s civic engagement? I hypothesize that there is a dissonance between proxies used to measure polarization and the way people themselves actually perceive polarization. In other words: do citizens’ perceptions of polarization around them match with the areas labeled as polarized by more objective metrics? In comparison with voter file data for matching zip codes, I find people do not accurately identify their neighborhoods as being polarized or not, when compared to the “objective” measure of partisan concentration. Through an original survey questionnaire, I measure citizens’ current engagement, based on self-identification of their neighborhood being polarized. For background context, I conducted a series of semi-structured, ethnographic interviews with Civic Engagement subject matter experts, based in Houston in order to provide an additional descriptive layer to complement the survey analysis. While people may not be accurately identifying polarizing surroundings, those who self-identify as living in a polarized neighborhood have statistically significant differences in levels of civic engagement. I model hypothetical engagement levels based on polarizing surroundings. I find on average, across 11 different civic engagement metrics, there is a ~20% reduction in civic engagement uptake, as self-reportedly connected to living in a polarized neighborhood. While futility was hypothesized as the driver behind reduced political action uptake, the survey results actually pointed more towards Fear of Social Sanctions (FOSS), which is a compelling area for future exploration. This FOSS result is a promising policy implication, as self-censorship is generally easier to address than apathy. The findings suggest the current measures of polarization might be in tension with citizens’ actual behaviors, which can lead to a misunderstanding of polarization as a socio-political phenomenon.