Estimating the Impact of Exogenous Shocks to Containerized Trade Networks Via Maritime Trade Gravity Analysis

Abstract

This paper explores maritime trade gravity and exogenous shocks. Using AIS data, I begin by presenting a model for classical trade gravity adapted to port-level adjustments. Separately, I measure the impact of the 2015 Suez Canal expansion on trade, specifically bilateral national maritime deadweight tonnage. Then, with national and port-level gravity models, I estimate elasticity with respect to travel time. Finally, taking the estimated elasticities, I model the impact of an exogenous shock -- the Suez expansion -- on localized deadweight tonnage shipped, culminating with a port-by-port aggregation.