“CONTRA EL AGUA NADIE PUEDE”: MULTI-SCALE APPROACH TO ASSESSING ENSO PRECIPITATION ANOMALY LOCAL IMPACTS ON COASTAL ECUADOR

Abstract

The coastal provinces of Ecuador are some of the country’s most climate-vulnerable and socioeconomically vulnerable places in the country. These areas also brace most climate impacts related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through precipitation and flooding extremes. There is a significant literature gap on local and coast-specific ENSO impacts in all of Latin America, but Ecuador in particular is under-studied. This research characterizes the relation- ship between ENSO indices in the Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific (Niño 3.4 and Niño 1+2) and ENSO meteorological and social impacts on the coast of Latin America (Niño 1+2), to understand further the local meteorological variables that affect the livelihood of communities living in this under-studied and vulnerable area. Using locally collected meteorological and precipitation-linked weather event casualty data to visualize the formation of extreme El Niño events, we assess ENSO climate impacts at multiple scales. At the source-to-hazard level, Niño 1+2 showed stronger and more consistent correlations with coastal precipitation anomalies than Niño 3.4, particularly during the peak rainy season. At the hazard-to-exposure level, precipitation anomalies aligned with increases in people and homes affected, with stronger coupling in southern coastal regions. At the community level, household surveys revealed that limited hazard knowledge, weak institutional trust, and economic dependence on climate-sensitive sectors collectively amplify vulnerability to ENSO events. These findings shed light on potential local policy measures that would help risk mitigation and preparedness for an El Niño event for small coastal communities.