The Economic Impact of Remote Work on Public Transit and Commuting Patterns in the NYC Metro Area Post COVID-19

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically transformed how, where, and when people work, triggering unprecedented disruptions in urban mobility networks. This shift has been especially visible in New York City, a region long defined by its dense transit network and high rates of public transportation use. This study investigates the medium-term economic impact of remote work on public transit ridership and commuting patterns in New York City and its surrounding metropolitan area. Using individual level data from IPUMS USA and system level panel data from MTA, NJ Transit, and PATH, the methodology estimates eight regressions to assess both micro and macro level effects. The core hypothesis is that remote work significantly reduced commuting demand, with sharper ridership declines observed in urban transit systems (subways and buses) compared to suburban commuter rail lines. Results confirm that remote work prevalence is negatively associated with average commute times and transit usage. However, deeper analysis reveals that the effects vary by region and transit mode. System and region level Difference-in-Differences models suggest that post-pandemic declines were greatest where remote work adoption was highest. These findings highlight how remote work has reshaped commuting in complex and unbalanced ways, posing new challenges for transportation policy and infrastructure investment. Future research should explore if these trends represent a temporary shock or a permanent shift in urban mobility, and how transit agencies can adapt to serve a more flexible, decentralized commuter base.