BRICS Matters: Analyzing the Effect of BRICS on Trade Amid Western Resistance and the Erosion of World Order

Abstract

Employing the gravity model of international trade, this thesis explores the effect of BRICS membership on bilateral trade flows between the coalition’s five original members. We first investigate the average impact of BRICS on trade. We find that BRICS increased intra-bloc trade by approximately 27 percent between 2009-2023. Next, we assess the effect of BRICS across time. Although BRICS does not appear to have a statistically significant effect on trade flows during its first decade-plus of existence, our results show that, between 2020-2023, BRICS is associated with a 37 percent increase in internal trade. We then examine trade between Russia and BRICS under different sanctions regimes. After Western countries and their allies imposed a crippling barrage of sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine in 2022, we find that Russia traded around 57 percent more with their BRICS partners. At the same time, we find that Russian trade with the sanctioning countries decreased by around 37 percent. We interpret this to mean that Russia is using BRICS membership to alleviate the effects of Western trade sanctions. Ultimately, our findings suggest that BRICS should be perceived as a transregional economic alliance, rather than as a global governance organization.