On Its Own Terms: Egypt's Hedging Strategy Between Washington, Beijing, and Moscow

Abstract

Over the past decade, Egypt has diversified its strategic partnerships to decrease its overreliance on the United States and pursue its national interests. These partnerships have deepened in the context of shifting U.S. influence and interests, increased Chinese and Russian engagement in the Middle East, regional instability, and great power competition. To understand how Egypt has maintained the partnerships throughout its foreign policy, this thesis applies hedging as a framework to explain Cairo’s strategic partnerships from 2016 to 2025. This study shows that Egypt’s relationships with the United States and rising powers are driven by three goals: risk mitigation, maximizing benefits, and strategic autonomy. Furthermore, the strategy is not only driven by interests, but by the need to navigate tensions within each partnership and regional instability that threatens national security. As a result, this study finds that Egypt’s hedging is sustained by mutual benefits across all three partnerships but is constrained by external pressure and creates long-term dependency that undermines the strategic autonomy it pursues. Furthermore, this thesis provides policy recommendations for the United States on how to strengthen the mutually beneficial partnership within the context of Egypt’s hedging strategy and its potential consequences.