Deliverability Over Values: Why Authoritarian Regimes Win Mega-Sporting Event Hosting Rights

Abstract

Why do the IOC and FIFA award the right to host mega sporting events to authoritarian states despite their normative commitments? This thesis argues that international sporting bodies select host cities based on operational reliability, the demonstrated capacity to finance, construct, secure, and execute at scale. Authoritarian systems have structural advantages over other bidders on these criteria. At the same time, democratic withdrawal from hosting further narrows the competitive field. Although opposition can raise reputational costs, it rarely constitutes a veto. The thesis tests this claim by comparing three successful authoritarian-hosted cases — the Beijing 2008 and 2022 Olympics, the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics, and the 2022 World Cup in Qatar — against Istanbul’s failed 2020 bid. The evidence shows that while naming and shaming can move public opinion, it does not move the IOC and FIFA. As long as authoritarian states can deliver what governing bodies actually need, their normative records function as background noise. That same dynamic now runs through LIV Golf and Formula One, wherever sovereign wealth meets a sport in need of a backer.