Melting Down and Heating Up: NATO Security in the Arctic

Abstract

The Arctic is rapidly emerging as a new theater of great-power competition, but NATO lacks the capabilities to secure Allied interests in the maritime Arctic. As the Arctic warms with its first sea-ice-free September projected before 2050, expanded access to maritime routes, natural resources, and military operating environments is intensifying security risks related to governance, resource management, and Alliance deterrence. This thesis examines how security risks in NATO’s Arctic are evolving alongside diminishing sea ice and assesses NATO’s ability to manage these risks. Drawing on interviews with NATO officials, military experts, and Arctic policymakers, alongside analysis of Allied defense strategies and international legal frameworks, it finds that governance strains and resource competition will be the primary emerging security threats to NATO’s Arctic as the region continues to open. A capabilities assessment reveals that NATO lacks critical communications, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) infrastructure in the Arctic, as well as power projection capabilities needed to credibly deter adversaries. To address these capability gaps, this thesis provides three policy recommendations. They are that NATO (1) reaffirm its commitment to Arctic security; (2) develop a redundant system of space-based assets for Arctic communications and ISR; and (3) build and coordinate a heavy icebreaker fleet capable of sustained military operations.