The Transfer Market: The Impact of Contractual Control on Professional Soccer Player Value

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of transfer fees in the European football market, focusing on contractual bargaining power. Using a dataset of player transfers, the analysis estimates regression models that incorporate player ability, contract duration, salary, league fixed effects, nationality, season fixed effects, and position fixed effects. The results show that contract duration is positively associated with transfer fees, suggesting that longer contracts increase the bargaining power of the selling club. This effect declines when additional controls are included but remains statistically significant. Player ability and salary are also important predictors, while age follows a nonlinear relationship. An interaction model shows that the effect of contract duration varies across leagues, with stronger effects in major European markets. These findings highlight the role of contractual structure and market conditions in determining transfer fees.