The Remnants of War: Village-Level Evidence on UXO Clearance and Casualties in Laos

Abstract

Laos remains the most heavily bombed country per capita in history, with 80 million cluster submunitions left unexploded following the covert US bombing campaign of 1964-1973. UXO casualties have fallen dramatically since the late 2000s, yet no study has subjected this claim to rigorous causal analysis at the village level. This thesis attempts to fill that gap. Using disaggregated data from the IMSMA database maintained by NRA, I construct a village-month panel covering 2008 to 2025 and estimate a staggered difference-in-differences model. When formal clearance is isolated, the coefficient reverses sign, and a convergence of evidence across twenty specifications strongly suggests a causal negative effect. These findings have direct implications for donors and implementing agencies. The sector’s current practice of aggregation is misleading, and risk education deserves more recognition.