Evaluating Australia’s Grand Strategy: China, the United States, and a Multi-Polar World Order

Abstract

This thesis argues that the shifting global balance of power in the 21st century has fundamentally altered Australia’s strategic environment. It establishes that the post-war liberal international order is under threat, and that Australia finds itself critically dependent on the two major players in a coming era of great power competition: the United States and China. For all of its history, Australia has relied on powerful allies (first Britain, then America) to protect its security and interests. In the 21st century this approach is no longer adequate to serve Australia’s national interest. Australia must evolve and develop an independent grand strategy of its own. This thesis asks: what grand strategy should Australia pursue to protect its national security, advance economic prosperity, and uphold its values in an era of U.S.-China strategic competition. This thesis employs a qualitative, multi-level analytical framework drawing on international relations theory, primary source material including national security strategy documents, trade data, international treaties, and speeches from world leaders in addition to secondary scholarly sources. The analysis proceeds across four chapters: the shifting world order, China’s rise, the U.S. trajectory, and Australia’s strategic position. We find that Australia’s alliance-dependent foreign policy approach is increasingly untenable in the 21st century given U.S. policy volatility and China’s consolidation under Xi Jinping. Australia’s strategic assets – geography, natural resources, strong institutions – support a more independent posture. This thesis presents a grand strategy for Australia rooted in two core principles – values- based realism and strategic independence – and offers thirteen policy recommendations that align with this goal.