Election Manipulation Through Misrepresentation of Pre-election Polls

Abstract

Prior to elections, voters often determine how they will vote based on public opinion polls. If the results of these polls are changed, the strategies of many voters can be affected at once. We consider the idea that a self-interested Poll Manipulator, with control over these polls, may modify the results in an attempt to sway the election toward its favored alternative. We find that, under certain assumptions about its power, the Poll Manipulator can, in many cases, cause its favored alternative to be elected, often at a severe cost to the voters. We examine conditions for the Poll Manipulator’s success in Plurality rule, Plurality with Runoff, STV, and a modified Plurality with [Mandatory] Runoff, which is least affected among these rules.