The Specter in the Voting Booth: A Comparative Analysis of the Legacies of Soviet Forced Deportations on Contemporary Electoral Results in the Baltic States

Abstract

Although the legacies of Soviet rule have been examined in a large variety of post-Soviet states, the Baltics States have been understudied in this manner. In this thesis, I examine the legacies of 1941 and 1949 waves of Soviet forced deportations on the 2003 EU Referendums in Estonia and Latvia. In addition, I analyze the impact of these deportations on the 2022 Saeima Election in Latvia and 2023 Riigikogu Election Estonia on votes Nationalist, Russian-associated, and the Incumbent Parties. I find evidence in Estonia that deportations had a positive impact on votes to join the EU and vote shares for the Nationalist parties. However, in Latvia there was no evidence of any impact of forced deportations on any electoral results. These results, along with analysis of transitional justice approaches in the Baltic States after freedom from Soviet occupation, suggest that analyzing the impact of oppressive violence in a comparative context must consider the peculiarities of each state.