THE FUTURE OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT: US MILITARY STRATEGY AND ITS INFLUENCE ON CHINA.

Abstract

This thesis predicts that the current US strategy on deterrence will fail in its efforts to challenge Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. This failure will result from weaknesses in the US and its allies' positions, strategic doctrine, and the rise of China. Through a comprehensive analysis grounded in classical and extended deterrence theory, this study investigates key historical precedents, including the Korean War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the China-India border conflicts, and Russian actions in Ukraine, to identify successful and failed deterrence patterns. The core theoretical framework emphasizes credibility, perception, and proportionality as essential to maintaining strategic stability. Ultimately, the study contributes to the broader literatureas on maintaining regional stability in the Taiwan Strait by advocating for a recalibrated approach to deterrence, balancing credible military commitment with nuanced diplomatic engagement.