Back to the Barracks: Disentangling Heterogeneous Effects of Coups d'État on Democratization

Abstract

Military coups d’état are often seen as detrimental to democracy, but most coups occur in nondemocratic countries. Consequently, a number of scholars have suggested that coups can play a pivotal role in democratization, but others have pointed to heterogeneous effects of coups d’état on democratization. In this thesis, I use linear-regression models with country- and year-fixed effects along with two comparative case studies to test the relationship between various conditions and post-coup democratization. I find that a country’s having recently been a democracy, the presence of protests during the coup, and a country’s having recently experienced another successful coup have positive correlations with post-coup democratization as compared with coups that occur in the absence of those conditions, although not necessarily as compared with the absence of a coup altogether. I also suggest that coups led by officers with ideological goals will be less likely to lead to democracy.