Cicero reCicero: Applying Techniques in Statistics for Species Estimates

Abstract

In the last century, several models using Capture-Recapture techniques have emerged to account for the unseen members of a population. These use the basic idea that individuals’ behaviors around a capture site can be predictive of other individuals’ behaviors. While this assumption applies well in cases where rigid control over environment can reduce heterogeneity, we do not know whether these techniques have a practical application on other kinds of data. Simultaneously, the number of senators in the Roman Republic from 81-45 BC is a mystery, with a wide range of feasible values. Using the ancient orator Cicero’s letters to his friend Atticus allows us to test Capture-Recapture techniques on capture occasions that have great amounts of heterogeneity.