Risk-Taking During a Pandemic: Investigating the Impacts of Virus Threat and Public Health Guidelines on Human Behavior During the First Wave of COVID-19 in the United States

Abstract

COVID-19 control efforts have relied heavily on behavioral modifications such as lockdown and social distancing to reduce human-to-human contact and slow viral transmission. In theory, such behavioral interventions have the potential to positively impact the course of an outbreak, but their success is dependent on people’s willingness to adopt them. Individuals decide whether to ignore or embrace public health guidelines based on their perception of trade-offs between the risks of contracting a pathogen and the benefits of performing potentially hazardous activities. Traits including age, gender, level of scientific knowledge, politics, and tolerance for boredom have been shown to influence adherence to public health guidelines. With the potential for such variability in behavior, it is important to investigate the extent to which people have adhered to public health guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the factors that may have influenced risk-taking decisions. This study consisted of two distinct elements: behavioral observations conducted at public parks and surveys distributed to twenty-nine people across the United States, recording their daily activities in summer 2020. Results suggest that lockdown had a major impact on people’s behavior, suppressing gatherings and visits to the riskiest locations, while driving up visitors at neighborhood parks and outdoor spaces. After lockdown was lifted, people continued to avoid activities that presented the most risk, suggesting that personal evaluations of the trade-offs between the risks and benefits of particular activities mirrored actual risk levels fairly well. However, these trade-offs were not always perfect, and in particular, people seemed to take higher risks when it came to spending time with friends and family, suggesting trust may play an important role in COVID-19 decision-making. Additional factors including state politics, age, gender, and surroundings (whether an activity took place indoors or outdoors) were also found to influence the types of risks that people were willing to take. Having a better understanding of what humans are comfortable doing during a pandemic and where they draw the line in terms of risk will be informative not only for future pandemics, but also in the case of future waves of COVID-19.