Homegrown Ambition: Domestic Drivers of Policy Ambition under the Paris Climate Agreement

Abstract

How do national landscapes impact international climate commitments? The Paris Climate Agreement requires the submission of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of the ‘highest possible ambition’ on five-year cycles. This paper explores the relationship between domestic variables and ambition in NDCs through a two-part analysis. First, domestic variables are modeled against NDC ambition to understand the conditions that lead to an ambitious national climate regime. The impacts of the carbon-intensity of the economy, domestic pressure, climate resilience, and the type of electoral system are explored. Next, a qualitative case analysis of institutional mechanisms in the United Kingdom, Mexico, and India is completed to understand how strategy-setting, coordination, and consensus-building mechanisms generate ambitious NDCs. The results suggest that strong national climate institutions promote the development of ambitious NDCs and reduce the impact of opposition forces. The paper contributes to the wider assessment of progress towards the goals set out under the Paris Agreement.